Current Research
Below is a selection of projects I am currently undertaking with colleagues.
Butler, D, Butler, R. Scharfenkamp. K, ‘Back in the Game? ACL Recovery and Performance in Women’s Professional Football’ [UPDATED]
Injury in professional sport can be viewed as an adverse health shock that generates productivity losses and involves rehabilitation costs. These can have important labour market consequences for both individuals and teams. This study examines post-recovery productivity among an understudied group, female professional football players. We focus on one of the most severe and recurrent injuries in professional women’s football: the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Using data on injuries and advanced performance metrics from 2019 to 2025 in elite competitions, we employ a difference‐in‐differences method and report a noticeable decline in minutes played upon recovery. However, conditional on playing time, there is no statistically significant difference in per-minute performance following return. These findings suggest that although post-recovery work exposure is reduced, performance conditional on selection is maintained. This is consistent with a period of managed reintegration into the workplace and suggests that the explicit costs incurred are worthwhile. Considered broadly, the findings can inform return to work policies.
Buraimo, T, Butler, D, Butler R, Simmons R., ‘Fickle Fans and Football Shocks - Are English Supporters Loyal?’
We investigate attendance at English league games across the top five tiers of the professional game following participation in domestic cup (knockout) competitions. As these competitions run concurrently, it is possible to explore whether shock or surprise results impact league attendance. Using a dataset of almost 30,000 league games and nearly 3,000 cup games from 2011 to 2023, we estimate the impact of cup results on subsequent league games, controlling for a variety of game- and season-level effects. Our results indicate that supporters become more fickle as teams descend the tiers of English football. Supporters of teams in tiers one to three are largely insensitive to cup shocks. However, positive shock results increase demand for subsequent league games, with more fans attending tier four and five matches after an unlikely success. Tier five supporters are found to punish clubs, with surprise losses leading to significantly lower league attendance in the next game. Loyalty and success, it seems, go hand in hand.
Butler, D., Butler, R., Singleton, C. 'Do Professionals Choke in the Face of Pressure and Distraction?' [updated]
We ask whether facing partisan audiences affects the execution of a highly-skilled task. Our setting is penalty shootouts in the high-stakes setting of elite professional football (soccer). In this context, performers take penalties under intense pressure, while facing a subset of the crowd behind the goal who may attempt to distract them through visual and auditory tactics. Using data on 1,207 penalties taken in the later rounds of major English cup competitions from 1992 to 2025, we find no evidence that having supportive allied spectators behind the goal provides a strategic advantage. This implies that elite professionals in this domain can effectively screen out crowd-induced distractions when performing under extreme stress.
Butler, D, Farnell, A, Simmons, R. ‘Short-Term Moves, Long-Term Outcomes: Wage Effects of Secondment'
This paper extends the temporary work literature in a different direction by studying how brief intra-industry job moves influence subsequent salary outcomes when contractual rights with the parent employer are preserved. Using data on loan transfers in the professional football (soccer) labour market of England and Italy, we find a statistically significant negative relationship between temporary reassignments and future wages. We estimate a Mincer-type wage equation using a unique dataset that matches individual salary information with detailed histories of short-term reassignments and performance-based productivity measures. Our findings indicate a secondment pay penalty.